03568nam a2200253 4500 395495 9781452241517 395495 20190530d2014 y0pory50 ba eng Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis Richards J. Heuer Jr., Randolph H. Pherson 2nd ed. Washington, D.C. Sage 2014 361 p. 21 cm Foreword. Preface.Chapter 1: Introduction and overview. 1.1 Our vision. 1.2 Two types of thinking. 1.3 Dealing with bias. 1.4 The role of structured analytic techniques. 1.5 the value of team analysis. 1.6 The history of structured analytic techniques. 1.7 Selection of techniques for this book. 1.8 Quick summary of chapters. Chapter 2: Building a system 2 taxonomy. 2.1 Taxonomy of system 2 methods. 2.2 Taxonomy of structured analytic techniques. Chapter 3: Choosing the right technique. 3.1 Core techniques. 3.2 Five habits every analyst should master. 3.3 One project, multiple techniques. 3.4 Common errors in selecting techniques. 3.5 Structured technique selection guide. Chapter 4: decomposition and visualization. 4.1 Getting started checklist. 4.2 AIMS (audience, issue, message, storyline). 4.3 Customer checklist. 4.4 Issue redefinition. 4.5 Chronologies and timelines. 4.6 Sorting. 4.7 Ranking, scoring, prioritizing. 4.8 Matrices. 4.9 Venn analysis. 4.10 Network analysis. 4.11 Mind maps and concept maps. 4.12 Process maps and Gantt charts. Chapter 5: Idea generation. 5.1 Structured brainstorming. 5.2 Virtual brainstorming. 5.3 Nominal group technique. 5.4 Starbursting. 5.5 Cross-impact matrix. 5.6 Morphological analysis. 5.7 Quadrant crunching (TM). Chapter 6: Scenarios and indicators. 6.1 Scenarios analysis. 6.2 Indicators. 6.3 Indicators validation. Chapter 7: hypothesis generation and testing. 7.1 Hypothesis generation. 7.2 Diagnostic reasoning. 7.3 Analysis of competing hypotheses. 7.4 Argument mapping. 7.5 Deception detection. Chapter 8: Assessment of cause and effect. 8.1 Key assumptions check. 8.2 Structured analogies. 8.3 Role playing. 8.4 Red hat analysis. 8.5 Outside-in thinking. Chapter 9: Challenge analysis. 9.1 Premortem analysis. 9.2 Structured self-critique. 9.3 What if? Analysis. 9.4 High impact/low probability analysis. 9.5 Devil's advocacy. 9.6 Red team analysis. 9.7 Delphi method. Chapter 10: Conflict management. 10.1 Adversarial collaboration. 10.2 Structured debate. Chapter 11: Decision support. 11.1 Decision trees. 11.2 Decision matrix. 11.3 Pros-cons-faults-and-fixes. 11.4 Force field analysis. 11.5 SWOT analysis. 11.6 Impact matrix. 11.7 Complexity manager. Chapter 12: Practitioner's guide to collaboration. 12.1 social networks and analytic teams. 12.2 Dividing the work. 12.3 Common pitfalls with small groups. 12.4 Benefiting from diversity. 12.5 Advocacy vs. Objective inquiry. 12.6 Leadership and training. Chapter 13: Validation of structured analytic techniques. 13.1 Limits of empirical analysis. 13.2 Establishing face validity. 13.3 A program for empirical validation. 13.4 Recommended research program. Chapter 14: The future of structured analytic techniques. 14.1 Structuring the data. 14.2 Key drivers. 14.3 Imagining the future: 2020. ANÁLISE DA INFORMAÇÃO 343238 METODOLOGIAS 341295 HEUER JR. Richards J. 358955 PHERSON Randolph H. 358956 Compra 0 PJ_25_000000000000000_B_31 2022-06-06 PJ37036 428408 PJ PJ PJ137036 PJ25.B.31 2022-06-06 0 MO Compra