02928nam a2200217   4500001000700000010001500007100004100022101000800063200014100071210008300212215001800295225004200313330216600355606001002521606004102531606001702572606003102589606000902620606002102629710006002650384276  a9291680567  a20070514d2001       y0pory50      ba  aeng  aModelling drug useemethods to quantify and understand hidden processesfEuropean Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, EMCDDA  aLuxembourgcOffice for Official Publications of the European Communitiesd2001  a245 p.d24 cm  aEMCDDA Scientific Monograph Seriesv6  aForeword (Georges Estievenart). General introduction (Lucas Wiessing; Richard Hartnoll). Part I - What is modelling and how can it be used?: Introduction. Chapter 1 - Epidemiology of drug use at macro level: indicators, models and policy-making (Lucas Wiessing, Richard Hartnoll; Carla Rossi). Chapter 2 - What are dynamic models and how can they be used? (Christine Godfrey; Steve Parrot; Mathew Sutton; Vanessa Waby; Philip Young and Catherine Comiskey; Martin Frischer; Gordon Hay; Mathew Hickman; Johannes Jager; James Kahan; Ludwig Kraus; Roberto Mollica; Maarten Postma; Roland Simon; Colin Tayçor; Lucas Wiessing). Part II - Modelling drug use with available data: Introduction. Chapter 3 - Modelling drug misuse in Europe using geographic information systems (Martin Frischer; Heath Heatlie). Chapter 4 - Using available data with dynamic models to estimate the extent of problem drug use (Carla Rossi). Chapter 5 - Multiple-indicator models (Roberto Mollica and Fabio Mariani). Part III - Modelling techniques and their uses: Introduction. Chapter 6 - The method of back calculation as a means of estimating incidence (Catherine Comiskey; Gordon Hay). Chapter 7 - Compartment modelling and stochastic dynamic systems (Gordon Hay; Catherine Comiskey). Chapter 8 - Dynamic models in drug epidemiology (Colin Taylor; Philip Young). Chapter 9 - Structural equations and path analyses: using multiple indicators of drug prevalence (Colin Taylor; Philip Young). Part IV - Modelling the health consequences of drug use: Introduction. Chapter 10 - Modelling infectious diseases and other health consequences: predicting future morbidity consequences and spread of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C. (Mirjam Kretzschmar). Chapter 11 - Developing multinational scenario analyses of health impacts of drug use (Johanes C. Jager; Maarten J. Postma; Peter W. Achterberg). Part V - Economic Models: Introduction. Chapter 12 - Modelling the health-care costs of drug-use-related disease (Maarten J. Postma; Keith Tolley; Johannes C. Jager). Chapter 13 – Economic market models (Matthew Sutton). General conclusions (Richard Hartnoll; Lucas Wiessing). Contributors.  aDROGA  aPREVENÇÃO DA TOXICODEPENDÊNCIA  aMETODOLOGIAS  aESTATÍSTICAS SOBRE DROGA  aOEDT  aUNIÃO EUROPEIA  aEUROPEAN MONITORING CENTRE FOR DRUGS AND DRUG ADDICTION