04902nam a2200241   4500001000700000100004100007101000800048200019800056210005600254215002000310225001500330300022000345330390200565606001904467606002504486606002704511606002804538606001004566606002004576606001904596700002204615701002304637384061  a20070216d2002       y0pory50      ba  aeng  aCan a leopard change its spots?bRecurso eletrónicoecontinuity and change in criminal offending patterns among three samples of serious chronic offendersfMichael E. Ezell, Lawrence E. Cohen  a[Rockville MD]cNational Institute of Justiced2002  a1 CD-ROMd12 cm  aNCJ 213005  aRelatório subsidiado pelo U.S. Department of Justice. Ficheiro de 11,6 Mb em formato pdf (550 f.). Também disponível em: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/213005.pdf.Acedido em: 05 de Novembro de 2007.  aABSTRACT: “One of the foremost controversies in contemporary theoretical criminology concerns how to simultaneously explain the existence of both continuity and discontinuity in patterns of criminal behaviour over time. Three broad theoretical paradigms have been used to explain both continuity (stability) and discontinuity (change): population heterogeneity, state dependence, and dual taxonomy theories.The main dispute among these contrasting theoretical paradigms centers largely on predicted differences regarding the degree to which criminal propensity is stable/instable across the life course. This study examines three key questions concerning patterns of continuity and discontinuity across the life courses of serious youthful offenders: (1) how stable are individual differences in the propensity to commit criminal acts across the tire course; (2) are there two (or more) discrete groups of offenders with distinct age-crime curves; and (3) is criminal activity of adjacent ages causally related, after controlling for persistent individual differences in the propensity to offend? Three large data sets of serious youthful offenders released from the California Youth Authority were used in this study. The dependent variable consisted of the number of arrest charges during each age year. The age ranges considered in this study varied by sample, but overall fell between the ages of 7 and 43.Semiparametric finite mixture Poissin models, as well as parametric random effects and standard negative binomial models were estimated to examine the issues.The substantive results were identical across all three samples and indicated that: (1) between-group differences were largely unstable across the ages studied; (2) there were more than two discrete groups of offenders found within each sample; and (3) even after accounting for persistent unobserved heterogeneity in the propensity to engage in criminal activities, there was still a significant positive, and substantively important relationship between having been arrested at the prior age and the frequency of arrest at the current age. The broad substantive implications of these results are that change matters in the lives of serious offenders, and even in the lives of the most persistent serious youthful offenders”.Chapter 1 - Introduction and overview: the 'great debate' concerning the age-crime curve. The paradox of persistence. Explaining the paradox of persistence. Overview of the disserstation. Overview of the findings. Chapter 2 - Theoretical framework: Introduction. Population heterogeneity and state dependence. Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime. Sampson and Laub's age-graded social control theory. Moffitt's dual taxonomy theory. Chapter 3 - Literature review and hypotheses: Introduction. Studies of the age-crime curve. Studies of the relationship of past to future criminal activity. Contribution to the discipline. Chapter 4 - The California Youth Authority: Introduction. The California Youth Authority. The CYA: 1981-1992. Rehabilitative and parole services available at CYA. Chapter 5 - Data and methods: Introduction. The three release samples. Data sources and variables. Methodology. Chapter 6 - Descriptive summary of data: Introduction. Crime, arrest, and incarceration rates in California. Criminal arrest histories. Background characteristic variables. Variables related to teh sample stay. Mortality experiences. Adult incarceration experiences. Summary. Chapter 7 - Age & crime among latent classes of serious youthful offenders: Introduction. Descriptive summary of the age-crime relationship. Selecting the optimal number of latent classes. Method of estimation & global / local solutions. The optimal number of latent classes in the three samples. Statistically testing the age invariance hypothesis. Results for the 1981-82 sample. Results for the 1986-87 Sample.  aCRIME VIOLENTO  aPERFIL PSICOLÓGICO  aPERSONALIDADE CRIMINAL  aANÁLISE PSICOLÓGICA  aPRESO  aESTUDO DE CASOS  aESTADOS UNIDOS  aEZELLbMichael E.  aCOHENbLawrence E.