01234nam a2200133   450000100060000010000410000610100080004720000530005533007920010846100600090060601120096070000180107285200100109020346  a20060410u           y0pory50      ba  aeng  aWhat can we learn from serious incident reports?  aThis article discusses an examination of 90 Serious Incident Reports (SIRs) generated in the London Probation Area between January 2002 and July 2003. The results showed that offenders assessed as high risk generated a disproportionately high number of SIRs, but equally serious incidents occurred across all risk bands. Consequently, while probation staff were proficient in identifying those most likely to inflict harm, the analysis demonstrates the limitations of risk prediction, and the need for considerable skill and knowledge among staff who work with offenders of all risk bands. Another significant finding was that whereas past violent behaviour was a powerful predictor of future violence, relatively few of those accused of a sexual offence had previous sexual convictions.  vV.53,n.1dMar. 2006pp.57-70tProbation JournalcLondon  aCRIMINOLOGIA  RISCO  PROBATION  PROBATION OFFICER                      COMPORTAMENTO VIOLENTO  CRIME SEXUAL  aANSBRObMaria  jP.105