Ficheiro de 3,18 MB em formato PDF (252 p.).

1 Climate change as a national security concern. Potential climate–security connections. Increasing risks of disruptive climate events. The focus of this study. Structure of the report. 2 Climate change, vulnerability, and national security: a conceptual framework. Connections between climate events and national security. Implications of the conceptual framework. Strategies for security analysis. 3 Potentially disruptive climate events. The science of climate projection. Abrupt climate change. Single extreme events. Clusters of extreme events. Sequences of events. Global system shocks. Surprises arising from poorly resolved climate dynamics. Conclusions and recommendations. 4 How climate events can lead to social and political stresses. Local and distant effects. Exposures. Susceptibility to harm from climate events. Coping, response, and recovery. Conclusions and recommendations. 5 Climate events and national security outcomes. Water, food, and health security. Humanitarian crises. Disruptive migration. Severe political instability and state failure. Interstate and intrastate conflict and violence. Conclusions and recommendations. 6 Methods for assessing national security threats. What should be monitored and why. Challenges of monitoring. A strategy for monitoring. An approach to anticipating risks. References.