Research report submitted by Towson University - Dept. of Mathematics to the U.S. Department of Justice - Award ner. 2007-DE-BX-K005. Ficheiro de 4,24 MB em formato PDF (96 p.). Disponível também em: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/237985.pdf. Acedido a 27 de junho de 2012.

1 Executive summary. 2 Introduction. 2.1 Statement of the problem. 2.2 Literature. 2.3 Statement of hypothesis. 3 Methods. 3.1 The mathematical model. 3.1.1 Bayesian analysis. 3.1.2 Simple models for offender behavior. 3.1.3 More realistic models for offender behavior. 3.1.4 Future offense prediction. 3.2 Implementing the mathematical model. 3.2.1 Measuring distance. 3.2.2 The distance decay. 3.2.3 Estimating the prior distribution of average offense distances. Tikhonov regularization. 3.2.4 The geographic triangulation. The coarse mesh. Finding the orientation of the coarse mesh’s triangles. Finding the centroids of the coarse mesh’s triangles. Determining the coarse mesh triangle containing a point. Determining the coarse mesh triangle near a point. The fine mesh. Triangular coordinates. Subtriangles with the same orientation as the parent. Subtriangles with the opposite orientation as the parent. Cartesian coordinates. 3.2.5 Evaluating the probability density P(z). 3.2.6 The Normalization function. The tail. The discretization. The two-dimensional midpoint rule. Application to the normalization function. Selecting the mesh. Evaluating I(z, _) as z varies. Evaluating I(z, _) as _ varies. 3.3 Reprise of mathematical assumptions and computational techniques. 3.4 The software. 3.4.1 Overview. 3.4.2 Installing the software. 3.4.3 Using the software. Selecting the crime series. Selecting the historical crime locations. Selecting the historical distances. Selecting the search region. Selecting the offender information. Program results. The analysis. Running time. 3.4.4 Internal structure of the software. Profiler. Using Profiler as a stand-alone program. Compiling Profiler. Brief overview of the Profiler source code. ProfilerGUI. Compiling ProfilerGUI. Brief overview of the ProfilerGUI source code. Integrating Profiler and ProfilerGUI. 4 Results. 4.1 Discussion of findings. 4.2 Implications for policy and practice. 4.3 Implications for further research. Bibliography. Dissemination of research findings. List of supplemental material.